The global art market is poised for its second straight year of declines, as demand for the top trophy works wanes and a new generation of buyers favors lower-priced pieces, according to a new survey.<\/p>\n
Auction sales in the first six months at Christie\u2019s, Sotheby\u2019s, Phillips\u00a0and Bonhams fell 26% from 2023 and 36% from the market peak in 2021, according to The Art Basel and UBS Survey of Global Collecting. The number of wealthy collectors surveyed who plan to purchase art in the next year dropped to 43% from over half in 2023. At the same time, the number who plan to sell increased to 55% \u2014 meaning there are more likely sellers than buyers in the market.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor the biggest spenders, there has been a moderating in their spending or slowing of their pace,\u201d said Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management. \u201cThey\u2019re taking a more considered approach.\u201d<\/p>\n
As the art world prepares for the big auctions in New York in November and Art Basel Miami Beach in December, dealers, galleries and auctioneers are hoping for a post-election rebound.<\/p>\n
There are some bright spots. The vast majority (91%) of wealthy collectors were \u201coptimistic\u201d about the global art market\u2019s performance over the next six months, up from 77% at the end of 2023, the survey said. That\u2019s a larger share than were optimistic about the stock market, at 88%. Only 3% of high-net-worth collectors are pessimistic about the art market\u2019s short-term future.<\/p>\n
The median spending on art by wealthy collectors remains stable at around $50,000 a year, according to the survey. Over three-quarters of wealthy collectors surveyed had purchased a painting in both 2023 and the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n
Yet a broad array of measures \u2014 from buyer interest to online sales \u2014 point to another year of declines or, at best, flat sales. Dealers and auction experts say geopolitical concerns (especially in the Middle East and Ukraine) along with economic weakness in Europe and China are draining buyer confidence. Higher interest rates also raised the opportunity cost of buying art, since wealthy collectors could earn an easy 5% or more from cash and Treasurys.<\/p>\n